Presidential Election In Nigeria Research Articles

Beyond tribal politics for e-participation and development: social media influence on Nigeria's 2023 presidential general election

PurposeThe study investigates factors like media, tribal, religious and party politics' influence on Nigerias’ 2023 presidential election choice. It confirms dominant social media platforms and examines their influence on election polls, e-participation and political candidate choice. The main objectives of this study are to: investigate if tribal, religious and party politics affect the respondent’s choice of a presidential candidate, ascertain the respondent's most used social media platform for political engagement and determine how social media platforms influenced the election polls during the 2023 Nigerian presidential election.Design/methodology/approachA sample size of 384 registered voters was used to survey three states in Southeast Nigeria hinged on the technological acceptance model, the instrumentalist theory of ethnicity and the theory of reasoned action.FindingsThe study found that tribal politics did not influence political candidates during the 2023 Nigerian presidential election. However, religious and party politics influenced their choices as well as X (Twitter), found as the most used and most influential social media platform vital for enhancing participatory democracy and informing people at real-time.Research limitations/implicationsThe researchers experienced challenges such as ensuring that the respondents filled the questions appropriately to reduce the number of void questionnaires and a funding problem since they had yet to receive any grant to enhance the study.Originality/valueThe study commends improved Internet connectivity and accessibility among the citizens for increased political engagement on social media. It also recommends that the Nigerian government enforce the rule of law in politics to enable diverse tribes and religions to experience democratic e-participation and development without marginalisation or subjugation by incumbent power. The findings affirm that social media is apt in political communication during the 2023 presidential elections in Nigeria. The study is a contribution to knowledge, timely and original.

An Evaluation of Selected Newspapers' Reporting on Hate Speeches during the 2015 Presidential Election in Nigeria

Election stakeholders in Nigeria continue to express worry over the growing trend of hate speech, particularly during the 2015 general elections. The influx of advertisements, political innuendos, and propaganda messages in some chosen individuals who were in the forefront of delivering hate speeches in Nigeria prior to the 2015 general elections increased the socio-political climate. With regard to the 2015 Nigerian presidential election, this study aims to investigate the effects of hate speech from a few media reports. Secondary data are heavily cited in this study such as textbooks, official reports and publications, Internet resources, journals, among others. As for analysing the various data gathered, content analysis was performed. This study found that hate speech coming from particular media reports contributed to electoral-related violence and mistrust among Nigerians. Consequently, the electoral process' credibility is affected. This study recommended, among other things, that election stakeholders, in particular INEC, CSOs, Elections Observers and Monitors, should also keep an eye on the media, particularly native language radio stations that utilise hate speech to fan the ember of ethnic and religious separation.

Lessons from the 2023 presidential elections in Nigeria

Lessons from the 2023 presidential elections in Nigeria

Unraveling Post-Election Dynamics: An Analysis of Groupthink in the Wake of the 2023 Presidential Election - Insights from Atiku and Obi Supporters

A heated contention arose over the outcome of the 2023 presidential election in Nigeria, with fervent followers of Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar staunchly asserting their positions. This research delves into the repercussions of post-election groupthink syndrome on the perceptions and perspectives of these politically charged groups. Spanning from February 25, 2023, to September 25, 2023, the study meticulously scrutinizes media sources to explore the factors contributing to the emergence and endurance of Groupthink within these factions. The findings illuminate the roles of echo chambers, charismatic leadership, and confirmation bias in shaping group dynamics, perpetuating entrenched beliefs. The implications of these revelations underscore the need for initiatives in media literacy and critical thinking to empower citizens to navigate the information landscape successfully. Political leaders are urged to prioritize inclusive, fact-based decision-making to counteract the adverse effects of Groupthink, fostering a more enlightened and harmonious political discourse in Nigeria.

Under the Shadow of the Siamese Twins: Ethnicity, Religion and Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential Election

Nigeria is considered a heterogeneous society per excellence. This is courtesy of its multi ethnic and multi religious character. While there is no agreement among scholars as to the exact number of its ethnic and religious diversities, its ethnic and religious composition closely follow same geographical boundary such that while the Eastern Ibo are mostly Christians, the Northern Hausa are predominantly Muslims while the Western Yoruba people are partly Christians and partly Muslims. Thus both often exercise joint influence on its politics. This is more profound at moments of decision making such as elections. This paper examines the 2023 Presidential elections in Nigeria viz a viz ethnic and religious influence in the election. Anchored on the rational choice theory, the paper relied on secondary source of materials such as text books, journals, electronic sources and official publications especially from the Independent National Electoral Commission. These were analysed using content analysis. It argued that both ethnic and religious influences are like Siamese twins as far as elections in Nigeria are concerned especially because of their geographical boundaries that roughly coincided. It concluded that Nigeria is yet to witness a significant departure in the pattern of ethno-religious influence on its elections. It, therefore, recommends the need for all stakeholders to be deliberate in stemming the tide of destructive ethnic and religious influence on  politics in the country.
 Key Words: Ethnicity, Religion, Politics, Election, Influence

Voters’ disposition and the outcome of 2023 general elections in Nigeria

The paper sought to discuss the disposition of the voters as it affected the outcome of the 2023 presidential election in Nigeria. The objective was to interrogate the disposition of the voters and its impact on the presidential election. It adopted the qualitative secondary research approach as its research methodology and also relied on grounded theory strategy of inquiry. The paper utilized the rational choice theory (RCT) as its theoretical framework. It found out that the voters were highly mobilized to participate in the electoral process through effective voter education, promise to deploy technology which included INEC voter enrolment device (IVED); Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) for both voter accreditation and e-transmission of results for collation; and the INEC results viewing (IReV) portal that will offer the public access to view polling units results real-time. Although, the voters’ disposition significantly influenced the outcome of the presidential election, INEC failed to deliver on their promises and changed the rules in the middle of the exercise. It was recommended that the 2022 Amended Electoral Act be reviewed to ensure absolute use of technology to conduct and declare election results as well as embrace the use of e-voting technology utilizing e-ballot papers to allow voting from any location if duly registered, and permit diaspora voting in the democratic system in Nigeria.

Resurging Prebendalism, Clientelism and Candidate Endorsement Syndrome: A Critique of the 2019 Presidential Election in Nigeria

Resurging Prebendalism, Clientelism and Candidate Endorsement Syndrome: A Critique of the 2019 Presidential Election in Nigeria

Television News Coverage of the 2019 Presidential Election in Nigeria: A Content Analysis Approach

In the Nigerian context, the broadcast media have continued to participate as active stakeholders in the electoral process. They produce various adverts, jingles, programmes and shows that aim at encouraging people to exercise their voting rights, reject electoral violence, and advocate peaceful elections. They also play important roles in social sensitization and mobilization ahead of the elections with many broadcast stations hosting debates for political aspirants. Therefore, this study investigated the impact of the programme's contents of NTA’s Political Update on voters’ participation and voting patterns in the 2019 general elections in Nigeria. The study adopted mixed methods design of the exploratory type. Sample comprised 185 respondents, including key stakeholders drawn from six geopolitical zones in Nigeria. Data were collected using three instruments; NTA and FRCN Network Programme Contents Analysis Checklist (NFNProCAC); Voters’ Electoral Participation Questionnaire (VEPQ) and Key Electioneering Personalities Interview Schedule (KEPIS). Content analysis data were analyzed quantitatively, while survey data were analyzed using SPSS V25, descriptive and inferential statistics. Findings revealed that NTA’s Political Update adequately featured voter education contents prior to the 2019 General Election in Nigeria; also, majority of the respondents were regular viewers and listeners and were adequately exposed to the station contents of NTA, featuring more of voters’ education contents. Further, findings revealed that there was an overall significant relationship in the electorates’ perception of featuring voters’ education contents on NTA programmes. Lastly, more voters participated during the last general elections as a result of their exposure to NTA network programmes prior to the 2019 general elections in Nigeria. The study recommended that tv stations should increase the strength of nationwide programmes for effective voters’ education.

Optimizing sentiment analysis of Nigerian 2023 presidential election using two-stage residual long short term memory

Sentiment analysis is the process of recognizing positive or negative attitudes in text. This technique makes use of computational linguistics, text analysis, and natural language processing. The 2023 presidential election in Nigeria is a significant event for the country, as it will determine the leader of the nation for the next four years. As such, it is important to understand the sentiment of the public towards the different candidates. In this research, we aimed to understand the sentiment of the public towards the three main candidates in the 2023 presidential election in Nigeria, Atiku, Tinubu, and Obi, by conducting a sentiment analysis on tweets related to the candidates. We used the long short-term memory (LSTM), peephole long short term memory (PLSTM), and two-stage residual long short-term memory (TSRLSTM) models to classify tweets as positive, neutral, or negative. Our dataset consisted of a large number of tweets that were preprocessed to remove noise and irrelevant information. Results showed that TSRLSTM performed excellently well in classifying the tweets and in identifying the sentiment towards each candidate individually. Our findings provide valuable insights into the public's opinion on the candidates and their campaign strategies, which can be useful for researchers, political analysts, and decision-makers. Our study highlights the importance of sentiment analysis in understanding public opinion and its potential applications in the field of political science.

Presidential Election in Nigeria 2023 Trial and Tribulation of Democracy

Political power to the people is the key to democracy. The famous Abraham Lincoln saying, government of the people, for the people and by the people, provides the basic structure of a democratic system. If the general masses are the custodian of power, then there must be a mechanism which should make the people the trustee of power. Election of the person or group of persons to exercise that power is the mechanism needed for the system. Nigerians love democracy. After much trial and tribulation, they have adopted a presidential democratic system. The next Presidential election in Nigeria will be held in February 2023. The election process is so lengthy and cumbersome that it takes a year from the day when political parties announce the names of their candidates till a voter comes out from his home to the pooling booth to cast his/ her vote in favor of his chosen candidate. Nigeria is beset with the problems of regionalism, ethnicity, religious favoritism. Cultural diversity, political instability, low economic growth, in spite of the flow of billion dollars’ worth of oil, are yet other problems, Nigerians must face to survive as a strong, viable modern, democratic state in Africa. Last but not least, a candidate in order to win the office of the Presidency, must overcome two constitutional hurdles. First, he must have received a plurality of votes cast in his favor. 2nd he must have received at least 25% of votes in two thirds of the total number of states. It means the candidate must have received 25% of votes in 24 states out of the total 36 states. Presidential system of Nigeria is so lucrative particularly to the Western media that it cannot afford to ignore it dynamic nature. Nigeria will now serve as an example of democracy in the third world. It will be a beacon light.

Rational Choice, Voting Pattern and Presidential Elections in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic

Arguably, party identification model, rational choice model, dominant ideological model are some of the prominent models shaping discussions on voting patterns and behaviour of the electorates. This paper relied on the rational choice model and drew on Presidential elections in Nigeria’s fourth republic to show how important this study is, its implications on sovereignty of the citizens, and the legitimacy of the emerged leaders whether it is based on the evaluative or non-evaluative factors. This study adopted a descriptive survey research design using both quantitative and qualitative methods. The population of the study was 9,018,287 registered voters in Anambra and Lagos States. The sample size was 400 and this was determined by using Taro Yamane formula. Instrument for data collection was validated questionnaire and interview guide. Quantitative data was analysed with the use of descriptive and inferential statistics, while qualitative data were content analysed. The paper concluded that money politics, Ethnicity and religious sentiment served as the determinant of the voting behaviour and choices of Nigerian voters during the presidential election of the fourth republic and this has tremendous implications on citizen’s sovereignty and the legitimacy of any emerged government. The study recommended that there is serious need for the strengthening and building of strong political institutions in the country. Also, there is need for collaboration by both INEC and the Civil Society groups to engage in the political education and re-orientation of both the politicians, voters and all the concerned stakeholders in the electoral processes of the country. Keywords: Rational Choice, Presidential Election, Voters, Fourth Republic and Voting Behaviour.

Geospatial Analysis of Invalid Voting in the 2019 Presidential Election in Nigeria

Geospatial Analysis of Invalid Voting in the 2019 Presidential Election in Nigeria

Political Advertisement and Voter Behaviour during the 2019 Presidential Election in South-South Region of Nigeria

The debate on the influence of political advertisements is an ongoing one. It has been argued that political messages advertised during elections tends to change voter choice and preference of candidates during an election while others show contrary findings to the question. This study attempts to lend a voice to the debate by investigating the impact of political advertisements in voter behaviour during the 2019 general elections in South-South region of Nigeria. The study reports data from a paper-based survey (N=400) of voters in the South-South region of Nigeria. Findings uncovered that a substantial number of voters in South-South region of Nigeria were exposed to newspapers political advertisements during the 2019 presidential elections in Nigeria. Data further demonstrate that voters who reported to have been motivated to vote due to issues advertised in the newspapers by the two political parties (PDP and APC) were married, civil servants and those who factored the advertised issues in their preference for a political candidate. The study concludes that the media played an agenda setting role during the 2019 presidential election campaigns.

Social media disinformation and voting decisions during 2019 presidential elections in Nigeria

Social media spread disinformation due to their characteristic features of anonymity and ease of producing, accessing, forwarding, and replicating media contents. Although studies have analyzed the influence of disinformation on voter choices, little is known about the false information that  went viral on social media during the 2019 Nigerian presidential elections and its influence on voting decisions. Accordingly, the study identified  social media disinformation about Muhammadu Buhari (All Progressives Congress) and Atiku Abubakar (Peoples Democratic Party), and its  influence on voting decisions. Content analysis of Twitter, Facebook and YouTube posts revealed 10 viral pieces of disinformation about the  contestants. Although the messages looked authentic because of their attribution, they were tagged false by independent fact checkers and  disclaimers. They were also ascribed as false by survey respondents. Despite their presence, the information had little influence on voting decisions.  While Facebook is the most used social media platform (48.6%), Twitter (60%) is the core channel of political disinformation. Posts used  multiple story formats and information sources to make claims appear real. A combination of text, video, and picture was used for the political  messaging, with pictures accompanying most stories for emphasis and message authentication. Each news story had more than 2000 likes and  shares, which has implications for the continuous spread of false information.

Ethno-Religious Voting Pattern and Governance in the Post-2015 Presidential Election in Nigeria

This study therefore examined the link between the ethno-religious voting pattern in the 2015 presidential elections and governance in the post-election era in Nigeria. We anchored our analysis on the Rational Choice Theory and relied on documentary method where data were systematically gleaned from journal articles, newspapers, official documents and other online materials while utilizing content analysis as our analytical compass. Based on this, we hypothesized as follow: the ethno-religious voting pattern in the 2015 presidential election has affected political development of Nigeria under the Buhari administration; the regionalization of political appointments by Buhari administration has increased ethno-regional agitations in Nigeria. On this note, the study found that ethno-religious voting pattern played vital role in determining the pace of governance and how resources should be distributed among the competing ethnic nationalities in the post-election era. It is however, recommended that the electorates should embrace party ideology and competence of candidate as the guiding factor for voting in the future elections to be held in Nigeria.

Developing market-oriented politics in Nigeria: a review of the 2019 presidential election

ABSTRACT The dynamic features of the 2015 presidential elections in Nigeria in which the opposition party candidate unseated the incumbent for the first time with little or no rigorous, expensive post-election litigations reveal the potential emergence and influence of political marketing in Nigerian politics. This paper argued that the market-oriented approach, the purposeful, coordinated, and strategic use of marketing communication media and tools contributed to the success of All Progressive Congress (APC) at the 2015 presidential polls. The evolution of voter-centric election campaigns indicates that marketing and communication professionals and strategies, rather than violence and electoral fraud, have dominated and will continue to dictate the outcomes of political elections in Nigeria. This study, therefore, reviewed the 2019 presidential election (the next election after the 2015 general election in Nigeria) to establish if the anticipated voter-centric election is evident. With experts interviews, direct observations, and secondary materials, we found that the 2019 presidential election was extremely monetised, violent, and fraught with all manners of electoral misconducts that are antithetical to the principles and practice of political marketing. We aver that electioneering in Nigeria is not market-driven and voter-centric.

Broadcast media and the conduct of 2015 and 2019 presidential elections in Nigeria: A comparative analysis

Media generally and broadcast media in particular are central to the survival and sustainability of any democratic dispensation like that of Nigeria. Democracy world over cannot function effectively without information sharing and this is done through the media. The Nigerian media is made up of print, electronic and the newly social media whose constitutional role is to inform, educate and entertain the general public fairly. Therefore, during any electioneering contest, the media is employed to canvass for votes by different parties against their opponents. This paper examines the role of the broadcast media during the 2015 and 2019 presidential elections in Nigeria, the study is a comparative one. Secondary source of data that included relevant books, articles, pamphlet etc. were utilized in the study. It was found that, the coverage by public stations during the 2015 presidential election was not fair to the opposition parties, since the outfit was dancing to the tune of the ruling party against other contenders. The private stations on the same elections covered the exercise more fairly and objectively by given a level playing ground for all parties to canvass for votes freely without any restriction. On the other hand, the coverage of the 2019 presidential election by both public and private stations was fairer and objective to both parties. It is therefore, recommended that, broadcast media should not serve as the mouthpiece of any political party. It should play it constitutional role of being the watch dog of the society by educating and informing the public especially during elections fairly to elect the candidate of their choice.

Campaign propaganda, electoral outcome and the dynamics of governance in the post-2015 presidential election in Nigeria

This study evaluates the impact of campaign propaganda on both the outcome of the 2015 presidential poll and post-election governance in Nigeria. It specifically analyses how ethno-religious campai...

Monte Carlo simulation of vote counts from Nigeria presidential elections

This study was designed to examine the application of Monte Carlo simulation to analyse vote counts from the 2011 and 2015 presidential elections in Nigeria. The study adopted a simulation approach...

The Spirituality Approach to Electoral Politics in Africa: Evidence from the Presidential Elections in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic

The Spirituality Approach to Electoral Politics in Africa: Evidence from the Presidential Elections in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic